概率语言多属性群决策方法及其在新型智慧城市市民获得感评价中的应用

针对公众参与的语言信息多属性群决策问题，研究了考虑参与者满意度的概率语言多属性群决策方法。首先，根据参与者的语言评价信息确定并规范化概率语言决策矩阵。然后，对大群体进行共识分析，由最大化参与者群体的满意度构建线性规划模型，确定参与者群组的权重；构造正、负理想方案的评价向量，构建多目标规划模型，用拉格朗日乘子法求解属性权重；定义各方案的加权贴近度，并以此对方案进行排序和优选。最后，通过新型智慧城市市民获得感评价案例验证了模型的可行性和有效性。     

Application of Machine Learning for Tool Condition Monitoring in Turning

The machining process is primarily used to remove material using cutting tools. Any variation in tool state affects the quality of a finished job and causes disturbances. So, a tool monitoring scheme (TMS) for categorization and supervision of failures has become the utmost priority. To respond, traditional TMS followed by the machine learning (ML) analysis is advocated in this paper. Classification in ML is supervised based learning method wherein the ML algorithm learn from the training data input fed to it and then employ this model to categorize the new datasets for precise prediction of a class and observation. In the current study, investigation on the single point cutting tool is carried out while turning a stainless steel (SS) workpeice on the manual lathe trainer. The vibrations developed during this activity are examined for failure-free and various failure states of a tool. The statistical modeling is then incorporated to trace vital signs from vibration signals. The multiple-binary-rule-based model for categorization is designed using the decision tree. Lastly, various tree-based algorithms are used for the categorization of tool conditions. The Random Forest offered the highest classification accuracy, i.e., 92.6%.

     

给定度序列图的覆盖成本和反向覆盖成本的研究

具有n个顶点且度序列为(m,2,…,2,1,…,1)(1的重数为m)的连通图不止一个(这些图均为树),而每个树对应唯一一个段序列(l₁,l₂,…,l_m).通过对任意一树移动最长段的悬挂点到最短段悬挂点的方式得到另一树,比较前后两树的覆盖成本和反向覆盖成本,给出了具有最小覆盖成本和反向覆盖成本的极树,并且进一步给出了取得最小覆盖成本和反向覆盖成本的顶点.     

基于改进VIKOR方法的地震应急物资运输决策问题研究

地震灾害应急救援物资方案的合理选择对与减少人员伤亡,降低灾民的财产损失具有重要影响。本文针对属性权重未知情形下的地震应急物资运输方案决策问题,提出了一种Pythagorean模糊不确定语言与前景理论相结合的改进VIKOR决策方法,即PFUL-PT-VIKOR法。首先,采用Pythagorean模糊不确定语言用于描述和融合专家对地震应急物资运输方案在考虑多种属性影响下的感知信息;其次,利用主客观融合法对属性权重进行求解;然后,提出基于前景理论的改进VIKOR法并得出方案排序;最后,通过算例分析,对所提出方法的有效性和实践性给予验证。结果表明,PFUL-PT-VIKOR模型有助于增强决策专家对不确定突发情景信息感知的知识表示能力,解决属性赋权过于主观或过分依赖样本的困难,并突围了应急决策者隐性心理行为较难定量应用的思维定势,增强了模型的现实适用性,为地震应急物资是否合理运输提供决策支持。     

A Tree-valued Markov Process Associated with an Admissible Family of Branching Mechanisms

Let E?R be an interval. By studying an admissible family of branching mechanisms{ψt,t ∈E} introduced in Li [Ann. Probab., 42, 41-79(2014)], we construct a decreasing Levy-CRT-valued process {Tt, t ∈ E} by pruning Lévy trees accordingly such that for each t ∈E, Tt is a ψt-Lévy tree. We also obtain an analogous process {Tt*,t ∈E} by pruning a critical Levy tree conditioned to be infinite. Under a regular condition on the admissible family of branching mechanisms, we show that the law of {Tt,t ∈E} at the ascension time A := inf{t ∈E;Tt is finite} can be represented by{Tt*,t∈E}.The results generalize those studied in Abraham and Delmas [Ann. Probab., 40, 1167-1211(2012)].     

Logging damage and injured tree mortality in tropical forest management

Using insights from the forest ecology literature, we analyze the effect of injured trees on stand composition and carbon stored in above‐ground biomass and the implications for forest management decisions. Results from a Faustmann model with data for a tropical forest on Kalimantan show that up to 50% of the basal area of the stand before harvest can consist of injured trees. Considering injured trees leads to an increase in the amount of carbon in above‐ground biomass of up to 165%. These effects are larger under reduced impact logging than under conventional logging. The effects on land expectation value and cutting cycle are relatively small. The results suggest that considering injured trees in models for tropical forest management is important for the correct assessment of the potential of financial programs to store carbon and conserve forest ecosystem services in managed tropical forests, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and payment for ecosystem services. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Considering the role of injured trees is important for managing tropical forests
• These trees can cover up to 50% of basal area and contain more than 50% of the carbon stored in above‐ground biomass
• Reduced impact logging leads to a larger basal area of injured trees and more carbon stored in injured trees than conventional logging
• Injured trees play an important role when assessing the potential for carbon storage in the context of payment for forest ecosystem services.

     

时间敏感选项依赖下的基础设施恢复决策研究

突发事件发生后,基础设施之间的恢复依赖为恢复过程带来了严重挑战。为了能够在突发事件后高效而有序的实现基础设施恢复运行,根据相互之间的恢复依赖关系制定合理的恢复决策非常关键。本文基于网络流理论,以累积恢复效能最大化为目标,建立了时间敏感选项依赖下的恢复设计与调度决策混合整数规划模型。然后,讨论了模型在完全中心化、完全分散和信息共享决策环境下的应用方法。最后,通过真实基础设施数据集测试了模型,结果表明:(1)该模型在突发事件后的基础设施恢复决策中具有应用可行性;(2)决策环境显著影响存在恢复依赖的基础设施网络整体累积恢复效能;(3)与完全分散决策环境相比,在信息共享决策环境下独立决策的整体累积恢复效能可以得到大幅提升。     

考虑专利保护和渠道偏好的再制造双渠道闭环供应链决策与协调

本文在电子商务环境下考虑消费者对零售渠道和直销渠道具有不同的渠道偏好,研究了专利许可零售商实施再制造的双渠道闭环供应链定价决策和协调问题。运用博弈论方法求得了集中决策和分散决策情形下的最优定价策略,并分析了消费者渠道偏好系数对节点企业最优定价策略及利润的影响。针对分散决策存在效率损失的问题,以集中决策的最优解为基准,通过联合运用一个由批发价格、直销价格和专利许可费构成的定价机制和一个利润分享机制,实现了双渠道闭环供应链的完美协调。